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#398302 - 10/31/04 03:13 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Bob G Offline

Member

Registered: 10/10/03
Posts: 3994
Loc: i fell off the rails
Who's running again? You know seriously if someone were undecided and tried to read and comprehend the stuff on this post, they would probably not even bother to vote.

All the TV and radio ads throw stones at the opposing candidates, let's hope nobody here lives in a glass house.

Nothing is finer than being in South Carolina
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#398303 - 10/31/04 03:24 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Baitrunner Offline
Member

Registered: 04/12/02
Posts: 1366
Gergie, buddy, I'm relieved to see ya' survived the "Great Boston Massacre", with nothing more than a super hangover!. \:D (Just teasin' with ya'; nuthin nasty here.)

I prefer the NY Times Interactive Election Guide Electoral Map; it's up-to-date, and no major bias.(Although, once again, registration is required.)

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/


The best polling site has got to be Real Clear Politics.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html


The race is tightening up fast. Bush's overall lead is dropping, and if I had to take a educated guess now; I'd bet he's toast. I'm steeling myself for a Kerry victory. (I've said it before; if Bush pulls it out, it will be a miracle. An incumbant should not be in this tight a race. It bodes ill for Mr. Bush.)

Zogby, the only pollster to accurately predict the 2000 race, has it tied, but there are numerous wrinkles in the mix. Whew! Still a horse race, but tighter than a nun's.....habit! The #'s change every day!

You are correct, sir. No one's mind is to be changed at this stage in the game; much better to keep it civil and center upon the logisitics of fight. It's bloody marvelous sport, to me. Jolly, jolly good show, cobbers and cobbettes! Better than Access Hollywood!

On election night, early returns may show the trends. If Bush pulls a state or two out of the Northeast,( i.e. NH, or long-shot: Maine) his odds increase. If it goes as predicted, Mr. Bush gets early retirement.


PS. Soon after the election, Mr. Mitchie-poo (perhaps I should start refering to him as Mr. Sylvia-poo! \:D ), shall, in his infinite wisdom, shut this thread down, making Mike, et al, deliriously happy.

Now, if you Lib's want a place to go a bash Republicans, Neo-cons, and othersof this ilk, might I respectfully remind and suggest:

http://www.capitolgrilling.com/cgi-bin/ubbcgi/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=forum&f=1


You'll love this place! Lib's out-number conservatives 10-1; it makes CTF seem domestically tranquil in comparison; and they cuss like Marines! A veritable Liberal Nirvana, as I live and breathe! So, if you've got to get politics out of your system, this may be the place to go.

"I think, that all right-thinking people, are sick and tired of being told that they are sick and tired of being sick and tired. I, for one, am not. And I'm sick and tired of being told that I am!"
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#398304 - 10/31/04 03:55 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
gerg Offline

Member

Registered: 01/04/03
Posts: 8789
Bsit, I thought he always retired early? \:D It's such a hard job.

Seriously though, I agree with bait that at this stage, nobody is seriously on the fence and looking here won't help um, so lets go catch and release for a while.

Unfortunately, I have to disagree with baits prediction, although not his analysis. Bush shouldn't be hurting this badly with a solid base and no real crisis looming against him. But he will end up as president again (note I didn't say he'd win, just stay where he is) anyway - regardless of which way the polls break (I don't think they are very accurate this season anyway).

In the end though, I believe that whoever loses this election will end up the winner in the longrun. People will be upset, energized, and will get organized, then lookout at the polls next time. About 40% of the poplulation doesn't vote as a rule. What if a large percentage of those did? We may be seeing some of that this election, which is why things may be so close.

So lets all hold our breath for another 2 days, then try to get on with things.

*********************************

Well behaved boats rarely make history.....
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#398305 - 10/31/04 04:07 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Baitrunner Offline
Member

Registered: 04/12/02
Posts: 1366
Gergie, this is just too...weird! I'm predicting a Kerry win; you're predicting a Bush "something"!
It's downright scary. But, at least it's objective, and honest. I like that!

The battle is on as to who's my favorite "Progessive", either you or Den. Did you check out that Real Clear site? Greatest polling site since sliced bread!

I like your point about winners losing in the long run. A Bush "win" sets Hillary up for '08. A Kerry "win" sets up McCain, perhaps, or Jeb, long-shot, for '08. The possibilities are endless, and interesting.

EDIT: If there are too many "shenanigans" again, in this election, maybe we'll get some REAL voting reforms in place by '08. That'd be a nice change!

"I think, that all right-thinking people, are sick and tired of being told that they are sick and tired of being sick and tired. I, for one, am not. And I'm sick and tired of being told that I am!"
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#398306 - 10/31/04 04:09 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Anonymous
Unregistered


RayZ,

With all due respect, I must disagree with you.

Clinton warned Bush that Bin Laden was, in Clinton's estimation, the largest threat and security concern Bush would face. It was clear to Clinton right from the start, based upon his meeting with Bush and members of his incoming cabinet, that their number one issue was Iraq. (Time Magazine, June 2004.)

Furthermore, based upon Bush's first 9 months in office, and his cabinet's failure to pay adequate attention to the growing terrorist threat, while the threat may certainly have existed prior to their taking over the White House, they failed to adequately or effectively address this issue. They were too consumed with finding a way to justify a war in Iraq.

You posted: "Most, if not all of the problems the Bush administration and the current Congress have had to face are inheritated issues from previous administrations (I disagree)

and I see the criticisms as simply not agreeing with what Bush and Congress is doing (True),

at least they are doing something which is more than you can say about the ineffectiveness of their predecessors." (I again disagree)

Part of that is correct. My criticisms ARE largerly based upon disagreeing with what they are doing, as much as what they have failed to do. I disagree with your view that they are doing something more, or something better, than Clinton did, or Bush I, who were Bush II's predecessors.

Furthermore, the issue in this election is not Bush vs. Clinton. It is four more years of what we have already seen from Bush, vs. four years of something different from Kerry. For me, this choice is clear.


"National Guard duty for Bush? You didn't need connections to get Guard duty during Nam, I did it myself, joined a local unit in my senior year in college, the US government gave me a choice, I took the NG route and exposed myself for a 6 year obligation rather than a 2 year stint in the regular military, thousands of other patriots did the same thing."

I'm not knocking anyone who served in the NG. Forgive me if that is how you read that. But the unit that Bush got into was not your average enlisted NG unit. It was an elite unit largely made up of college grads who were the sons of wealthy and influential families. Furthermore, my BIGGEST problem with Bush is that his military record and his discharge are suspect, and I have no doubt that he received special treatment because of his family's wealth and influence.

Finally, I only bring up Bush's military service in the Vietnam era in response to those who try weakly to use Kerry's service AGAINST him. Since by your own admission you have not followed this thread, I will repeat something I posted previously:

Which is worse:

A. A man who enlists voluntarily for combat duty, serves four months overseas under enemy fire, returns home after 3 relatively minor wounds, resigns his officer's commission due to his moral and political convictions, accepts an other than honorable discharge as a result of his anti-war position, and goes on to protest the war?

OR

B. A man who uses his family's wealth and influence to secure a stateside ANG post, which he fails to fulfill and gets away with it again due to his family, and goes on to get an honorable discharge which he did not earn or deserve, again, because of his family's wealth and influence.

"Kerry has absolutley no connection with middle class America, which the Democratic party is supposed to represent."

And Bush DOES? This is the consumate "Silver Spoon Kid"! He has never done an honest days work in his life, got into Yale because he is a legacy, got into Harvard because of his family, barely graduated from either, has run every company he has ever been involved in into the ground until he took over the Texas Rangers baseball club, and there he was mainly a figure head who did very little actual "managing", was a poor governor, my father is from Texas and his entire family lives there, stole the 2000 election with the help of Jeb and Katherine Harris and the Supreme Court, and has made a complete mess of this country for the last four years! His foreign policy sucks, the economy sucks (unless you're in that top 1% or own stock in Halliburton or United Defense or other oil or defense related companies) the job market sucks, his record on the environment sucks, he's going to totally screw up social security and medicare, "No Child Left Behind" is a JOKE! My wife and my eldest daughter are both teachers........

Name one thing, ONE, that Bush has done in four years that should earn him another four? Name ONE redeeming quality or one example of his leadership that has demonstrated that he is qualified or worthy of being elected President of the United States for the next four years.

For an interesting look at how in touch Bush is with the middle class read "American Dynasty" by Kevin Phillips, a former aid, advisor, and strategist for Richard Nixon, and formerly a staunch Republican. He has written other books, before Bush was President, including "The Politics of Rich and Poor" 1990, "Post-Conservative America", "The Emerging Republican Majority", and "Mediacracy: American Parties and Politics in the Communications Age", and others.

The only time I have ever supported or applauded Mr. Bush was in the immediate aftermath of 9-11 and when he sent our military into Afghanistan, and THAT was a no brainer. Everything he has done since then has been a mistake, IMO.

Ray, you are certainly entitled to your opinion and your vote, but I must respectfully disagree with you sir.

Regards,

Jim
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#398307 - 10/31/04 04:16 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Baitrunner Offline
Member

Registered: 04/12/02
Posts: 1366
Technically speaking, there is a certain irony that George Soros's millions upon millions donated to Moveon.org and other 527's, were effectively countered by the relatively less well funded Swifties. Rather amazing turn of events.

"I think, that all right-thinking people, are sick and tired of being told that they are sick and tired of being sick and tired. I, for one, am not. And I'm sick and tired of being told that I am!"
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#398308 - 10/31/04 04:25 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Anonymous
Unregistered


"...were effectively countered by the relatively less well funded Swifties."

I would opine that that statement is subjective and debatable. ;\)

Regards, Herr Baitrunner Extraordinaire! \:\)
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#398309 - 10/31/04 04:32 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
gerg Offline

Member

Registered: 01/04/03
Posts: 8789
Bait, I don't think the stinkboaters really had any real effect on people. It was largely discounted (including first hand vietcong witneses) and if it did anything, it solidified bush's base. I doubt it had any lasting effect on swing voters or marginal D's. I chalk it up to great mischevous fun.

Soros' money however has been used to mobilize millions of new voters as well as massive get out the vote efforts. Some of it may have been used for kerry ads, but it isn't a strong interest of his. He is more interested in influencing the balance of power, not putting sticks in anyones eye.

*********************************

Well behaved boats rarely make history.....
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#398310 - 10/31/04 04:35 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Anonymous
Unregistered


I must sadly and reluctantly agree with Gerg, while I hope against hope that Le Baitrunneir is right! I see Bush remaining in the White House by hook, or more likely, by more crook :p .... again. ;\)

The race is tight, the polls fluid, Kerry could very well be getting "misunderstimated" by the pundits, since an abnormally large turn out by the populus will most likely favor Kerry, and the polls cannot accurately reflect that.

It will certainly be a nail biter. May make for some interesting dinner conversation on Thanksgiving (or even Christmas! ) Caught the end of a couple of Sunday morning news programs and the pundits predict court room challenges and recounts galore. :rolleyes:
Let's hope not! \:o

And Baitboy, I agree with you on your "EDIT". Some meaningful and effective voting reforms would be nice. Bush and co. had four years to work on this, but everything worked out so well for them last time, they musta figured, if it aint broke, don't fix it! :p ;\) \:D
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#398311 - 10/31/04 05:05 PM Re: Political Discussion: One Thread Only!
Baitrunner Offline
Member

Registered: 04/12/02
Posts: 1366
Man, Real Clear updates their polling data all the time! An hour ago, it's Bush up 1.6, now it's 2.3. Interesting, but Gerg may be correct; polling data might be moot at this stage of the game.

It'll be interesting to see which pollsters were right on the money, and who were blowing smoke.

Well, I'm off for a 1/4 Century. Lets see how the numbers shift during the next 2 hours!

"I think, that all right-thinking people, are sick and tired of being told that they are sick and tired of being sick and tired. I, for one, am not. And I'm sick and tired of being told that I am!"
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