Baitrunner: IMHO, the real race is for the votes of those few who've yet to decide.

People with messed up senses of reality and/or those who have some axe to grind with the establishement will vote for the Anti-Bush (aka Kerry). I honestly believe that given the conditions of pre-WW2, people like Val and Nu2salt would argue that the US should not be involved in the European campaign. They would say similar things they say today regarding preemption and picking a fight with someone who's done nothing to us.

Those who value Bush's aggressive posture on Terrorism and those who flaunt UN resolutions, at the expense of our security, will vote for Bush.

I have a gut feeling that at the end, those very few undecideds will chose to go with what they know vs. the unknown candidate. In the end, they trust the President to protect them, despite the fact that they may not be happy with everything.

So, my guess....Bush wins by ~20 Electoral votes.

John